Crude Review @1 Year on from the High.
Time flies when your having fun! The $130.60 high for front month WTI printed on March 7 2022.
A year after that happy occasion seems like a good time to look back and see if there are any useful tidbits that can inform.
To the charts then: The 1 year.
A bear market for sure with the great big B wave rally lasting 3 mo.s...
The C wave decline to the lows took just about 6 months.
And the current sideways structure has taken 3 mo.s to the day. Time wise it equals the B wave and does not look like basing action.
There could be a case for the move down being completed with a simple abc structure ending at $70, retracing almost 50% of the post covid rally( if your are using the 6.50 volume weighted low) BUT the fib relationships and look of the last 3 months argues against that. Additionally if one uses the -40 low print for the spot month low than the 50% retrace point is around $44 and the .382 retrace is $65. So room to make a lower low.
The first c=a, and that argues for the 2 legs being part of the same corrective structure.
The 23% retrace line providing resistance just overhead, is of the preceding C wave down.
The x wave overlaps the termination of the first b wave, highlighting the first abc structure cohesiveness.
In the subsequent abc, c=78% of a, and the c= 62% of the very first wave labeled a in this chart.
It s an interesting structure.
Question numero uno is of course how low do we go?
The first A wave had a sharp $37 fall from $130 over 8 days. Hard to imagine something equivalent, but a grind down to 66? We are coming up on May and it almost never fails to produce.
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