A Discussion of Technical Analysis, Elliott Wave Theory, and Fibonacci Ratio's focusing on Energy Mkt.s Crude, Products, and Natural Gas. Occasional Fundamental Analysis, Energy News and Rumor.
A Frank Sinatra Stock Rally; Have Yourself A Merry Little Christmas!
Someday soon we all will be together .....If the fates allow
Until then......we'll have to muddle through somehow
So have yourself a merry little Christmas...... now.
A bit on the dark side and catches the mood this holiday perfectly. Markets produced the seasonal inflection point in mid October, as called for in Is it Stocksaggedon? , and currently are in the seasonal 4Q rally also referred to in aforesaid piece.
All of that is particularly relevant at this point , not because it s so original but quite the opposite, it is commonly known by experienced investors. The big banks are all forecasting a recession and lower lows next year. Volumes and market action suggest the positioning for that is on hold, awaiting the outcome of this end of year move. An example of this is the GS Outlook below;
I cannot say I disagree, except for the rather optimistic hard landing low projected.
More importantly, how does MY "merry little Christmas " play out.
From my last post Dec 28, " Before we get into next year, short term the WTI has a good deal of upside risk to between $48 and $54, with $51.50 being my favorite cluster of resistance/ and a measured target for a 4th wave." Hourly click to enlarge As can be seen, WTI is in the high side of that range and evidencing some recent weakness. It does have a "look" that could produce a higher high at the top end of the range there, or even somewhat higher. However the greater risk, short and medium term is to the downside from here. It may turn out that a "b" wave chop down is in the cards with a subsequent "c" wave up, but that kind of move can be deep and retest the lows . See above Fib retracements, particularly the .618 and .78 Longer Term Risk For Bulls AND Bears The Decline click to enlarge While the labeling of the subwaves above can be argued, including whether the wave down is completed yet or not, the $
KUDOS, and I mean it, to Biden. Real implementation will be incredibly difficult and failure will mean doom (don t think your grandchildren are going to survive in a world without plankton). By next election cycle the path the world is on will be visible to all and most likely we will see spiking carbon emissions, devastating weather catastrophes, the need for even more investment, carbon taxes, and even more weaponizing of painful choices. The pandemic definitely decreased global emissions. To stay under the limit on future emissions needed to keep climate temps under the 1.5 centigrade increase, that same decrease in emissions Y on Y has to be achieved every year until 2030. Reality No.1) Co2 and other greenhouse gas emissions have a very high correlation w Global GDP, .87 to .93 Climate change is unfortunately global so don t bother with arguments based on regional data. In the United States some progress growing GDP while cutting emissions has been achieved in some locales. Mos
From FT Energy... US petroleum stocks fit for bursting Posted by Izabella Kaminska on Jan 14 11:45. Weekly US energy inventory data release on Wednesday confirmed the unbelievable. US petroleum stocks rose in the week despite especially cold weather in the region during the period. Meanwhile, Dennis Gartman of the Gartman Letter draws attention to the fact that aggregate inventory rose by 8.9m barrels, amongst the largest weekly aggregate increase ever. More absurdly still, gasoline stocks are now at levels not seen in two years — some 10m barrels higher than they were last year....... The market responded to the disconnect between distillate and gasoline demand by storing the former offshore in floating storage. This is easily done for distillates. But now that we’ve seen a bit of a pickup in demand for distillates because of the weather, a potential surplus of gasoline has been produced. And, unlike distillates, gasoline is not easily stored offshore. Hence the probab