Is it Stocksaggedon? Or?? September market forecast....EH.

 Historically September is NOT a great month for equities. Many many examples of big selloffs in Sept and/or Oct. and statistical averages support the notion. Importantly this has also provided great entry points for the fairly regular 4th Q rally.

Once again I ask that you spend 10 sec and review the previous equities post  "How High the Bounce?".

Currently equities have already retraced (the Nasdaq 100) or nearly retraced (the SPX), 50% of the July 13 to Aug 16 explosive rally.  And while this morning it doesn't "look" quite complete, if you are a bull, this is where you start taking aim. It would also make sense from a seasonal perspective to see Nov and Dec upside action.

I would be surprised however if we were to see a resumption of the move up from here, implying new highs. 

I believe this down leg will ultimately be deeper and more complex, eventually chopping around quite a bit. 




The 1st half of the year saw a pretty choppy structure down. It works for me as  Elliott Wave abc with c=1.62 of a. So maybe a lot of re exploring the late summer range, ending on the high side at the end of the year. Watch out for 2023 though. See "Am I Being Alarmist" 

Not advice.


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