Showing posts from July, 2022

How High the Bounce?

 Always the question yes? We did get one, see last post, and targets are the fibonacci retrace points of the 6 mo move down. 4085, 4225,  and 4360. Roughly. Really depends on when you want to go on vaca I think. Of course it may be I m early as usual, but scale up selling is one of my favorite things. Gonna leave those orders in and hit the beach. BTW not advice and don t trust anything I say.                                

The Case for a Bounce

 Context is ALL. Please check out my FEB. 3rd POST, Am I Being Alarmist   The piece examines a very long term Elliott Wave count that is complete at the highs of last January, along with downside targets etc. The downside targets were roughly 4000 and 3000 but it was very early days in the development of the structure.  There WAS a pretty good bounce off the 4100 area in mid March. Right, what now though?  Contrarians Delight. Bloomberg reports Capitulation Etc Serious consensus. Not to mention the weekends "Dollar Doom Loop" stuff.                    It s subtle, but note the RSI positive divergence. I count a likely a,b,c down with c= 1.618 of a, and a .236 Fib pull back of the ENTIRE market (using ES) at the lows.  Also notice the generally higher volume levels seen at big buy inflection point opportunities in this market.  Don t get me wrong, I m still an Alarmist, just thinking a 50% retrace of the first a,b,c structure down could be in the cards at this point.  Also I