Wednesday, June 22, 2022

Why Inflation Is Yesterdays News

 I love it when all of Wall Street, the Fed, and the media agree; INFLATION!!

WAIT,  wasn't that long ago we had to super size the STIMULUS . Was that a bit overdone? The market did crash right or am I imagining that?

 If you asked the 50% of  US households below the mean income of $60g's per yr..the stimulus was probably just right ...got to pay bills, buy cars and laptops...participate in the American Dream for 18 mo.s ...but I digress or do I?

The marginal propensity of lower and middle income households to consume likely doubled, but that is now long gone.  

AND for most of the rest ....wait till they get their Q2 Statements.  

Commodity markets are already reflecting this reality. 

Starting with GASOLINE, everyone's favorite complaint. 

Monthly Bars

 

The red arrows are on May. I wish I was that regular.
Retail prices OF COURSE will lag.

 

 

 

 

 

A closer look reveals that prices HAVE ALREADY come down almost $1.00. Not retail of course.

 30 Min Bars

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Next up Wheat

 Daily Bars

Down about 30% from the highs and at the low side of  the last 3 mo.s range.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

How bout Copper? Big industrial component right?

 


And last but not least NG which of course is a component of the summer AC/ utility bill. 

In this case the US consumer got a little help via an LNG facility outage for the summer season.

Weekly Bars

 Note the circled move represents Ukraine/Russia driven export demand pressure. 

Additionally GDP is I believe pumped up with excess inventories.

Next up:  HARD TO PORT Full steam ahead!

Oh did we mention the USD strength and generally tighter Central Banks globally.?

Maybe the anomalous events will keep on comin but this is a reaction to a reaction to an action. Like being at the helm of a boat, an ever lighter hand will most likely get the ship back on course.