Wednesday, June 22, 2022

Why Inflation Is Yesterdays News or Why Biden Needs Better Advisors

 I love it all of Wall Street and the Fed Gov are in agreement. INFLATION!!

WAIT,  wasn't that long ago we had to super size FED stimulus. Was that a bit overdone? The market did crash right or am I imagining that?

 If you asked the 50% of  US households below the mean income of $60g's per yr..the stimulus was probably just right to pay bills, buy cars and laptops...participate in the American Dream for 18 mo.s ...but I digress or do I?

The marginal propensity of lower and middle income households to consume is now long gone. 

AND for most of the rest ....wait till they get their Q2 Statements.  

Commodity markets are already reflecting this reality. 

Starting with GASOLINE. Everyone's favorite complaint. 

Monthly Bars


The red arrows are on May. I wish I was that regular.
Retail prices OF COURSE will lag.






A closer look reveals that prices HAVE ALREADY come down almost $1.00. How bout your station? I know I know...

 30 Min Bars










Next up Wheat

 Daily Bars

Down about 30% from the highs and at the low side of  the last 3 mo.s range.








How bout Copper? Big industrial component right?


And last but not least NG which of course is a component of the summer AC/ utility bill. 

In this case the US consumer got a little help via an LNG facility outage for the summer season.

Weekly Bars

 Note the circled move represents Ukraine/Russia driven export demand pressure. 

Additionally GDP is I believe pumped up with excess inventories.

Next up:  HARD TO PORT Full steam ahead!

Oh did we mention the USD strength and generally tighter Central Banks globally?

Maybe the anomalous events will keep on comin but this is a reaction to a reaction to an action.










Wednesday, March 2, 2022

WTI Blow Off Top?

 Take a look at the Fibonacci .62 relationship between the last leg up on the long term chart below and the preceding 1 thru 3 legs up from the 2020 low.   

 Monthly Bars

                                                                 click on chart to enlarge

Crowded I know,  the .62 extension is denoted by the dotted line here. The 6.44 low is a rolling chart low obviously.  

Have to go to the hourly bar chart for the RSI to generate a negative divergence. 

If selling into this run keep leverage low and beware your prime broker. 

Just ruminating out loud not trading advice. 

Thursday, February 3, 2022

Am I being Alarmist?

 What if this IS the correct Elliott Wave Count? If it is , the counter rally, possibly a wave 2 up, 

will be followed by an accelerating wave 3 down.

click to enlarge

 Note the Long Term RSI negative divergence. 

Even if the above is not the existential penultimate Wave -5-, of 5 of V, and is merely a sub wave,

a pullback to the 4th wave of lesser degree, is somewhere between 2200 and 3400!


 click to enlarge

 Note the negative divergence on the RSI.

A .618 retrace AND a failed test of the very long term upward trendline suggests a high risk of further downside. 

Fib targets and extensions? If we're seeing a relatively bullish abc correction down, equal legs would project to roughly 4000. If we get a 3rd wave down it could do a 2.62 extension hitting 3000.

Its not every day you get all the innovation in the Finance space we saw last year. 

And its not every day you get the combined drop off in fiscal and monetary stimulus we will see in the next year.



Wednesday, February 2, 2022

Carbon Credits on FIRE


The  Krane Shares Global Carbon Strategy ETF, KRBN, is the most liquid and as far as I know the only 

ETF following a Carbon  Credit value strategy. It has been consistently bid for the last year, and is now 

breaking up from a bullish flag. 

KRBN Daily

Click to enlarge


   Where to?? There is Fib extension resistance around 59. See below.

KRBN Daily