Analyze This

From my last post Dec 28, " Before we get into next year, short term the WTI has a good deal of upside risk to between $48 and $54, with $51.50 being my favorite cluster of resistance/ and a measured target for a 4th wave." Hourly click to enlarge As can be seen, WTI is in the high side of that range and evidencing some recent weakness. It does have a "look" that could produce a higher high at the top end of the range there, or even somewhat higher.  However the greater risk, short and medium term is to the downside from here.  It may turn out that a "b" wave chop down is in the cards with a subsequent "c" wave up,  but that kind of move can be deep and retest the lows . See above Fib retracements, particularly the .618 and .78  Longer Term Risk For Bulls AND Bears The Decline click to enlarge While the labeling of the subwaves above can be argued,  including whether the wave down is completed yet or not,   the $

Time to examine the likely structure of the SP500 move down and it's long term implications. 10 yr. Weekly  click to enlarge  I usually write assuming a pretty passable familiarity with the basics of Elliott Wave Theory on the part of my readers. A summary, including both pros and cons, can be found here.  A post discussing the entire long term move up, it's structure, and why it had many features of a completed move, can be found in my Sept. 24 post  Top of the Pops; Ring Ring  for context. Keeping it simple- the 20% pull back, coupled with that 10 yr. trend line is providing support...for now.  I do believe we are currently in a 3rd wave down, which is where you would expect to be in the count, to take out that trend line. I have to say that labeling the sub waves down from Dec 12 to 24 is VERY difficult and suggest to me that they are a series of 1, 2 's in there and the -3- of 3 is still in front of us. 2 Yr click to enlarge Why It's Not J