Friday, December 28, 2018

WTI Elliott Wave Outlook 2019 and Beyond

Before we get into next year, short term the WTI has a good deal of upside risk to between $48 and $54, with $51.50 being my favorite cluster of resistance/ and a measured target for a 4th wave.


Hourly
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A leg up from todays low equal to the first leg up, targets 49, also the .618 retrace.

Daily
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This chart is updated with my Elliott count, excuse my idiosyncratic labeling.

You will see that the range of the 4th wave of a lesser degree target is encompassed by the gray box.
That range might be expected to be reached according to Elliott,.

If the count above is correct, than another low is yet to be put in to complete a 5 wave count down impulse wave I or A.
Targeting rules for a 5th wave are either that it will be equal to the 1st wave or .618 of waves 1 thru 3.
Diagonal triangle 5th rules do not come into play here, at least at this degree and at this time.

The initial wave 1 down off the highs was truncated and is not usable here, leaving us with the .618 measure.
If the 4th wave were to carry as high as 54.50, the top of the potential range, than a 5th wave measured target hits at 33.12
If the 4th wave were to carry to 51.50, the middle of the potential range, than a 5th wave measured target hits at 30.12, etc.

So. 

This actually fits with thinking I ve had for a long time; that WTI would have to re explore the lows.

20 yr. Monthly
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The technical damage done thus far during the 4th Qtr. has made clear that the move up from 26.27 is over.
 WTI is now well into a new down leg that will almost certainly be related in degree, as well as by Fibonacci ratio or percent terms, to the preceding legs down. Most likely the C wave.

Possible E Wave targets

The C wave x 50% targets $32.6
The C wave x .618 targets $22.62
the C wave x .78 targets $8.36

 Happy New Year










Tuesday, December 11, 2018

Crude Oil Update...More to Go.

Time to revisit the my Elliott Wave count and it's implications.

Daily

Note the peak volume at the -3- of (3). 
There were a lot of 1,2's and as we write this only one of the sub-waves has been completed on 11/29 at 49.41
If this is the correct count, then there will be at least 2 more lower lows put in, (5) and 5, before a significant rally can develop. 
Hourly

It is still unclear whether the current consolidating structure above 50 is completed yet, but I think it has a little more to go on the upside to finish up a c for the (4) wave.
Meaning the "hour is getting late".
Weekly


Ultimately the spectre of a test of the 26.10 lows is going to be under review as lower lows are put in and the  .618 retrace of the entire move up is put to the test as support.

Addendum; the .618 retrace referred to above is actually at 45.50.
The fib retrace points were off a little in that chart.