Friday, October 19, 2018

Crude Oil Update

Been awhile since I've posted on Crude Oil , but catch the Tweets of Oct.9 and 17.

Crude failed to rally off last weeks low of 70.50, and instead ranged sideways for a consolidation  before putting in new lows yesterday.  And while a $2 drop isn't all that, it suggests a wave structure down from the 76.88 high vastly different from the "abc" corrective move it well might have been prior to yesterday.

 In fact the move down could be a 5 down or even a series of 1, 2's of lesser degree, setting up for an extending 3 wave down and all that implies.
Hourly


Whats the big deal?  IMHO there is no reason in Elliott Wave theory why the Crude can't retest the low at $26.  
The initial leg up from the 33.20 low way back in 2009, ended at 114.83 or $81.63 later
This move up from the 2016 low of 26.05 prob topped out at 76.90  for $50.85, or .62 of that first move.

Weekly
click to enlarge
Note the series of neg divergence on the RSI.
So a failed retest of yesterdays breakdown at 70.50 followed by a trend line penetration, would raise the downside risk considerably here.  




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