Showing posts from October, 2018

Crude Oil Update

Been awhile since I've posted on Crude Oil , but catch the Tweets of Oct.9 and 17. Crude failed to rally off last weeks low of 70.50, and instead ranged sideways for a consolidation  before putting in new lows yesterday.  And while a $2 drop isn't all that, it suggests a wave structure down from the 76.88 high vastly different from the "abc" corrective move it well might have been prior to yesterday.  In fact the move down could be a 5 down or even a series of 1, 2's of lesser degree, setting up for an extending 3 wave down and all that implies. Hourly Whats the big deal?  IMHO there is no reason in Elliott Wave theory why the Crude can't retest the low at $26.   The initial leg up from the 33.20 low way back in 2009, ended at 114.83 or $81.63 later This move up from the 2016 low of 26.05 prob topped out at 76.90  for $50.85, or .62 of that first move. Weekly click to enlarge Note the series of neg divergence on the RSI. So a

Small Caps Big Pullback

It's only been a little more than a month since the Russell 2000 highs, and it's lost a lot of value since then, 7.4% as of Tue morn. Daily Bars  click to enlarge It is in oversold territory, as well as hitting the Fib .382 retrace and 4th of a lesser degree support. This suggests risk of a short term pause or bounce here.  However given the Elliott Wave Count discussed in the previous post, medium and long term risk of a very serious nature is growing as evidenced by the deep sell off in this index. Those familiar with Wave Theory will know the implications of a Grand Super Cycle top; a long term decline of relatively equal significance as the Cycle High lasting many decades. Since the Theory posits that markets reflect aggregate societal mood and functionality, a decline of this import would imply a society breaking down as well. Sorry. Now the GSC HAS lasted 80 years, so you may have some time before the walking dead come for you, but  You can hear