Monday, September 24, 2018

Top of the Pops; Ring Ring

A little review (context is all).

Starting with the consensus Elliott wave count on an SP500  going back to 1930, we have been in the 5th wave up of the Grand Super Cycle V wave since the 2009 low. Big Q then is; are we there yet?
                                                                    log scale
 
                            click to enlarge                            

Waves I thru III increased by a factor of 25.16,  and wave V has increased from the '82 low, by a factor of 25.75 at the 2947 high.

The wave count on the rally up off the 2009 lows;
10 yr chart
click to enlarge
Of note is the near equivalence of wave III and V around 1130 pts
The weekly bar also has negative divergence on the RSI vs the Jan '18 spike.

3 yr. chart

The 5 of V is 344 pts, vs. 1 of V at 310 pt.s
                                                                            Daily

click to enlarge
Note the daily RSI negative divergence. 
We are now in the 5th of the V of the Grand Super Cycle 5th Wave. ( I botched the degree labeling on these but point remains).




With a significant pullback, say 5% or 147 pt.s putting the SP under 2800, risk to the downside from this extremely elevated and mature move, is essentially incalculable. Do you look to the 4th wave of lesser degree as a target? That would be 80. Too extreme? OK how bout a pullback to the 4th wave of 2 lesser degree's? That' the 2009 low of 666. Maybe just to down to the 4th of 3 lesser degrees, or 1815 from 02/08/2016, 1135 SP pt's for a 38% drop.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

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