Tuesday, July 3, 2018

High Enough Yet?

WTI looks overbought after the last 2 weeks surge. The previous post of June 6,

A Little Pop for Summer? , stated the risk appeared to be to the upside for the next couple weeks from an oversold condition.

That is no longer the case.
1 Month
click to enlarge

Note the repeated RSI negative divergence on the hourly bars.

Some kind of retrace to consolidate the last 11.50 move should be expected going forward. 

Short/ medium term risk is now to the downside.

There has been some lightening up by the specs but still plenty of of net length in WTI.

5 Yr.s
click to enlarge

Now it could be that WTI is on it's way to test the all time highs, after all that $26 low looked pretty

definitive and there is a lot of geopolitical risk etc. If that is the case, then bulls will not want to see

that trend line above taken out.

And the June lows cannot be overlapped in that scenario.



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