Friday, December 28, 2018

WTI Elliott Wave Outlook 2019 and Beyond

Before we get into next year, short term the WTI has a good deal of upside risk to between $48 and $54, with $51.50 being my favorite cluster of resistance/ and a measured target for a 4th wave.

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A leg up from todays low equal to the first leg up, targets 49, also the .618 retrace.

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This chart is updated with my Elliott count, excuse my idiosyncratic labeling.

You will see that the range of the 4th wave of a lesser degree target is encompassed by the gray box.
That range might be expected to be reached according to Elliott,.

If the count above is correct, than another low is yet to be put in to complete a 5 wave count down impulse wave I or A.
Targeting rules for a 5th wave are either that it will be equal to the 1st wave or .618 of waves 1 thru 3.
Diagonal triangle 5th rules do not come into play here, at least at this degree and at this time.

The initial wave 1 down off the highs was truncated and is not usable here, leaving us with the .618 measure.
If the 4th wave were to carry as high as 54.50, the top of the potential range, than a 5th wave measured target hits at 33.12
If the 4th wave were to carry to 51.50, the middle of the potential range, than a 5th wave measured target hits at 30.12, etc.


This actually fits with thinking I ve had for a long time; that WTI would have to re explore the lows.

20 yr. Monthly
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The technical damage done thus far during the 4th Qtr. has made clear that the move up from 26.27 is over.
 WTI is now well into a new down leg that will almost certainly be related in degree, as well as by Fibonacci ratio or percent terms, to the preceding legs down. Most likely the C wave.

Possible E Wave targets

The C wave x 50% targets $32.6
The C wave x .618 targets $22.62
the C wave x .78 targets $8.36

 Happy New Year

Tuesday, December 11, 2018

Crude Oil Update...More to Go.

Time to revisit the my Elliott Wave count and it's implications.


Note the peak volume at the -3- of (3). 
There were a lot of 1,2's and as we write this only one of the sub-waves has been completed on 11/29 at 49.41
If this is the correct count, then there will be at least 2 more lower lows put in, (5) and 5, before a significant rally can develop. 

It is still unclear whether the current consolidating structure above 50 is completed yet, but I think it has a little more to go on the upside to finish up a c for the (4) wave.
Meaning the "hour is getting late".

Ultimately the spectre of a test of the 26.10 lows is going to be under review as lower lows are put in and the  .618 retrace of the entire move up is put to the test as support.

Addendum; the .618 retrace referred to above is actually at 45.50.
The fib retrace points were off a little in that chart.

Tuesday, November 13, 2018

The Crude Move -Where Are We Now?

This is my most likely Elliott Wave count;

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Pls note the repeated pos divergence on the RSI.

The pos divergence coupled with the current count of  subwave -5-  of [3] down, suggests short term upside risk.

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No pos divergence yet however on the wickedly oversold daily RSI.
Note the -3- of [3] occurs as it takes out the previous lows at 64.25


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On the weekly the big thing is the .38 fib retrace point of the entire move up from 26.
CL touched that yest and it is going to be an important signifier of the overall condition of the market if that holds or not and to what degree. My guess is if the wave count on the hourly chart is correct than it will be short lived support.

Don't miss the preceding Crude posts for context.

Pls don't lose any money trading on this; it's entirely speculative. Good luck btw.. 

Friday, November 2, 2018

Crude Lowdown

How low is lower? Thus far the sideways action over the last 24 hr.s does not look encouraging for the bulls. The good news is it's looking a tad oversold very short term.
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Note the pos divergence on the RSI.
As I type this it dropped lower.

Note the Fib support at around the 60 point. So considering how oversold it is here perhaps a little consolidation prior to testing that 60? Jack be nimble.

For longer term view see the previous posts.

Friday, October 19, 2018

Crude Oil Update

Been awhile since I've posted on Crude Oil , but catch the Tweets of Oct.9 and 17.

Crude failed to rally off last weeks low of 70.50, and instead ranged sideways for a consolidation  before putting in new lows yesterday.  And while a $2 drop isn't all that, it suggests a wave structure down from the 76.88 high vastly different from the "abc" corrective move it well might have been prior to yesterday.

 In fact the move down could be a 5 down or even a series of 1, 2's of lesser degree, setting up for an extending 3 wave down and all that implies.

Whats the big deal?  IMHO there is no reason in Elliott Wave theory why the Crude can't retest the low at $26.  
The initial leg up from the 33.20 low way back in 2009, ended at 114.83 or $81.63 later
This move up from the 2016 low of 26.05 prob topped out at 76.90  for $50.85, or .62 of that first move.

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Note the series of neg divergence on the RSI.
So a failed retest of yesterdays breakdown at 70.50 followed by a trend line penetration, would raise the downside risk considerably here.  

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Small Caps Big Pullback

It's only been a little more than a month since the Russell 2000 highs, and it's lost a lot of value since then, 7.4% as of Tue morn.
Daily Bars 
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It is in oversold territory, as well as hitting the Fib .382 retrace and 4th of a lesser degree support.
This suggests risk of a short term pause or bounce here. 

However given the Elliott Wave Count discussed in the previous post, medium and long term risk of a very serious nature is growing as evidenced by the deep sell off in this index.

Those familiar with Wave Theory will know the implications of a Grand Super Cycle top; a long term decline of relatively equal significance as the Cycle High lasting many decades. Since the Theory posits that markets reflect aggregate societal mood and functionality, a decline of this import would imply a society breaking down as well.
Now the GSC HAS lasted 80 years, so you may have some time before the walking dead come for you, but 
You can hear the crazies howling for blood tonight on your TV.

Happy Halloween 

Monday, September 24, 2018

Top of the Pops; Ring Ring

A little review (context is all).

Starting with the consensus Elliott wave count on an SP500  going back to 1930, we have been in the 5th wave up of the Grand Super Cycle V wave since the 2009 low. Big Q then is; are we there yet?
                                                                    log scale
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Waves I thru III increased by a factor of 25.16,  and wave V has increased from the '82 low, by a factor of 25.75 at the 2947 high.

The wave count on the rally up off the 2009 lows;
10 yr chart
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Of note is the near equivalence of wave III and V around 1130 pts
The weekly bar also has negative divergence on the RSI vs the Jan '18 spike.

3 yr. chart

The 5 of V is 344 pts, vs. 1 of V at 310 pt.s

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Note the daily RSI negative divergence. 
We are now in the 5th of the V of the Grand Super Cycle 5th Wave. ( I botched the degree labeling on these but point remains).

With a significant pullback, say 5% or 147 pt.s putting the SP under 2800, risk to the downside from this extremely elevated and mature move, is essentially incalculable. Do you look to the 4th wave of lesser degree as a target? That would be 80. Too extreme? OK how bout a pullback to the 4th wave of 2 lesser degree's? That' the 2009 low of 666. Maybe just to down to the 4th of 3 lesser degrees, or 1815 from 02/08/2016, 1135 SP pt's for a 38% drop.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

Thursday, August 16, 2018

Natural Gas Poised for Breakout

These are front month continuation charts.
20 yr.

Thats a base.

5 yr.
The 2.50 level is proving itself as well as being the .61 retrace.

Now look at the Jan at 3.165. If nothing else the winter curve will force the continuation charts into an upside breakout.

Tuesday, July 3, 2018

High Enough Yet?

WTI looks overbought after the last 2 weeks surge. The previous post of June 6,

A Little Pop for Summer? , stated the risk appeared to be to the upside for the next couple weeks from an oversold condition.

That is no longer the case.
1 Month
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Note the repeated RSI negative divergence on the hourly bars.

Some kind of retrace to consolidate the last 11.50 move should be expected going forward. 

Short/ medium term risk is now to the downside.

There has been some lightening up by the specs but still plenty of of net length in WTI.

5 Yr.s
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Now it could be that WTI is on it's way to test the all time highs, after all that $26 low looked pretty

definitive and there is a lot of geopolitical risk etc. If that is the case, then bulls will not want to see

that trend line above taken out.

And the June lows cannot be overlapped in that scenario.

Wednesday, June 6, 2018

A Little Pop for Summer?

WTI has admirably traced out a post Memorial Day swan dive, which used to be more of a feature in the bad ol days than it is now. In any case, it has come off sharply enough to begin looking oversold on a medium term basis.
1 Month
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Note the RSI positive divergence.

Together with the Rbob reaching a 50% pullback, risk is to the upside for the next week or so.

6 Month
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BTW the Rbob 1 month / hourly bar chart also has positive divergence on the RSI.