Showing posts from July, 2017

Crude; More Will Be Revealed

Longer term price direction, and for me more importantly, clarity on the Elliott Wave count will become clearer over the next month . For now, the count I am going with suggests a continuation of the move lower.  1 yr.  click to enlarge Note the proliferation of abc structures (corrective) and equivalent legs. 5 day Shorter term the structure down appears to be a 5 count, and that of course needs at least one more leg to the downside to complete even a corrective structure. It will be interesting to see how far north this bounce goes.   The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange and energy derivatives carry a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors.  The above is merely an abstract theoretical discussion mostly for my own entertainment, not trading advice or a recommendation.

The Big Picture Post

Big picture perspective can be illuminating, especially if it's been awhile. The view from here; BONDS  as QE is seen as most significant driver the last 8 years. The last leg up, the C wave, is clearly finished with a retrace in excess of 78%. Elliott Wave Theory then would NOT be looking for an additional up wave as an extension of the preceding structure. The overlap of the A wave termination point confirms that. Therefore it is most likely a 3 wave ABC up; a corrective structure.....and very likely complete. Context is everything. If the recent corrective move up is done...the bottom of the range comes into play, as these flag structures are typically exited in the direction of the previous trend. Note that is a 5 yr chart. And so on to the 20 yr. chart Long Term Head and Shoulders Top pattern break down with a bounce failure at the neckline. New lows take out support going back to 2010. SPX with rates going up can you really extend higher? After all