Crude: Retrace or Trend Change?

The sharp drop in Crude over the last week suggests a new trend after a prolonged period of stability and relatively tight ranges. But is it?

 6 mo. chart
click to enlarge
Above we see the sudden widening of the Bollinger Bands, an oversold RSI, and a Fibonacci
.618 retrace. Short term risk of at least an upside correction appears high.

In this longer term chart please note the choppy nature of the up move, hitting resistance at the Fib 81% retrace of the last structure down. If the move up off the lows is an abc, c= 50% of a.
Some of this is discussed in the preceding posts of  Jan 30 and  Feb 15.
 The risk of a retest of the lows is high in this scenario.
1 mo. chart
click to enlarge
The fist hurdle for Crude to regain momentum will be the resistance at 50, but really it will need to exceed the .62 retrace at 52 to give the bulls breathing space. My guess is, a weighted avg for the spec length still out there, is just over that at around 52.50 as well.

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