Wednesday, February 15, 2017

That Old Texas Hedge

Long physical, long futures. The oil market as a whole has got that position on; very high net spec length and very high stocks. Due to the extended sideways move since early Dec, it's at a relatively high number too.
A big bet on SOMETHING.
1 yr. chart
click to enlarge
While a choppy consolidation often breaks in the direction of the preceding trend, and that can happen at any time, there is definitely technical room for further choppy movement down, prior to any run for the highs. 
The overall length in the market, not to mention the prospective future exploration and production, will make tough going of the advance.
News that might propel the market to new highs, like an announcement of a border tax plan, will no doubt be seen as an opportunity to trim length.
3 yr. chart
click to enlarge
Note the Fibonacci  .382 retrace coinciding with the trendline resist around $57.20

Good luck and

This is not a trade recommendation.





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