Tuesday, January 31, 2017

All Juiced Up, Nowhere to Go, Hangover Tomorrow

Wall Street partied. Me too.  All will be awesome; lower taxes, repatriation, rolling back rules and regs.  Busting up to new highs in a thrust above the trendline cleared out all the shorts. But really since mid Dec, it's been a bit of a slog, with last weeks thrust 50% of the preceding one. 
Market Vanes Bullish Consensus has been at 65% for 3 weeks, and they see overbought as 75%.
 5 Yr.
 click to enlarge
 Note the negative divergence on the 9 RSI (I am pushing it here a little). 

 1 Yr
 click to enlarge
The negative divergence here is on the 14 RSI and clear. 
So at what point does the market realize it might have fully discounted all it's hopes, at least for this year?
How about when it overlaps that last thrust up from 2251.75?

 1 Mo. chart
 click to enlarge
Elliott Wave;
I've got the move down from the highs labeled a possible 1, some degree of a sub wave of course.
That would make the next wave lower a 3 after this consolidation up from yesterdays lows completes 2.
And a 3 wave down through the point of recognition would be textbook.

Just so you know there are NO trade recommendations herein. 

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