Thursday, December 29, 2016

Nat Gas Update

Back from my travels, and Natural Gas is done loafing too.
If you don't follow me on Twittter @crudewire you're missing out on some nice pics lol.

Note the pithy analysis.

Anyway it's now making fresh highs, no surprise.
AND it seems that the latest move down from yesterday's highs has a choppy abc quality that is characteristic of corrections.


 Note the short term  50% retrace.

This does look like a very possible set up for an attack on the long term 50% retrace at 4.12 .

We will know if it takes out 3.87

Monday, December 12, 2016

Bond Plunge Done?

Almost.  Even freedivers have to come up for air. Please don't get me wrong, after 35 years this looks like a long term change of trend ( please see Oct.17 post Would You Buy This?)
BUT
Eventually the selling is done and there is nothing left to do but ...breathe.
 6 mo. chart
click to enlarge
Note the positive divergence on the RSI.
There looks like room on the Elliott Wave count for some further lows and so the Fib retrace points above are theoretical.
3 yr.chart
click to enlarge
Lots of spec shorts in there now as is often the case as the 3 wave matures.





Wednesday, December 7, 2016

Natural Gas Thrust

A thrust of 37% in just under a month for the Jan 17 contract, and an even more impressive 47% on the nearby contract chart, begs the question, " are we there yet?"

1 mo. chart
click to enlarge
Note the negative divergence on the RSI.
Elliott Wave identification; the -3- of 3 is at the gap and the 50% retrace level. 
This wave up is looking very well developed and mature with the current highs -3- of 5 or -5- of 5.
It is likely complete or very soon will be.

Not to say I"m negative on natty, just that it's overdone short and probably medium term.

The natty Elliott Wave structure longer term is in abc structures that are very symmetrical.

 25 yr. chart
 click to enlarge
Fair to say that Mt. Natural has found it's base and may very well be in the early stages of  a new abc structure up, of longer term significance.

Shorter term it has measured c=a resistance at around 3.90, and 50% retrace resist around 4.10
5 yr. chart


Thursday, December 1, 2016

Less Bang for your Euro

The Euro is in deep trouble, and it looks like it's about to get deeper.

5 yr. chart
click to enlarge
Theoretically it could chop up to the top of it's more recent range around 116, but with US Treas
collapsing and yields ripping it seems unlikely.

T Note 5 yr chart

A little off topic but not really; check out this long term chart of the 10 Yr.

 Sure looks like a head and shoulders top.  And it's a long long way down.

Anyway back to the Euro.
 17 Yr Chart
 click to enlarge
 Interesting Fib calculations;
.78 retrace of the .8245 2000 low to the high of 2008 at 1.5988 (note the actual fib numbers you can quickly guess the outcome) is .9955

And a measured C=A down from the highs with C beginning at 1.40 targets 1.00 

Why do we care? German price for Reg; about $5.00 a gallon