Tuesday, November 29, 2016

Nice While It Lasted

Sailed a 54 ft. sloop from NJ to the B.V.I. Nov.9 to Nov 27. While away my only comments were the following;
and yesterday;

 Pls take this opp to see the previous 3 blog posts, note date and subsequent market behavior.
All the commentary there still applies and is relevant.  

Nearby WTI has measured wave targets of 39 and 36; c=a and c=1.382 of a.
On a more positive note;
Given the importance of the 26 low, these targets are potential pivot points preceding a 3rd wave up.
 


Thursday, November 3, 2016

Crude; Back to the Future

Back to the Future. My post from Oct 4, Crude; Nothing Changes if Nothing Changes  is a discussion of the range 40 to 50, hedging interest over 52 in Cal 17, and the risk of a return to the lower end of that range.
Well nothing WILL change if nothing changes and OPEC is producing at top of their game for Oct.; 25.51 mbpd , up 7.2% m-o-m, led by higher Saudi and Iranian exports. .
Wish fulfillment
1 yr

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 click to enlarge
I do believe $26 is the low; it satisfies the equivalent leg Elliott measuring rule for targeting at 78%, and fundamentally probably forces re balancing in a big way.
That being the case, this is possibly the last leg down in a corrective structure wave 2 or B, and will at some point be followed by a major move up that will be a 3rd wave or C wave.
The 3rd wave or C wave is more often the most powerful and Fib retracement levels 39 and 36 look like potentially very important pivot points.  

Shorter term the move down is well under way and can bounce a couple bucks at any point
1 month
click to enlarge
I would be surprised if the 50% retrace is exceeded prior to seeing $40.