Analyze This

Sailed a 54 ft. sloop from NJ to the B.V.I. Nov.9 to Nov 27. While away my only comments were the following; and yesterday;  Pls take this opp to see the previous 3 blog posts, note date and subsequent market behavior. All the commentary there still applies and is relevant.    Nearby WTI has measured wave targets of 39 and 36; c=a and c=1.382 of a. On a more positive note; Given the importance of the 26 low, these targets are potential pivot points preceding a 3rd wave up.  

Back to the Future. My post from Oct 4, Crude; Nothing Changes if Nothing Changes   is a discussion of the range 40 to 50, hedging interest over 52 in Cal 17, and the risk of a return to the lower end of that range. Well nothing WILL change if nothing changes and OPEC is producing at top of their game for Oct.; 25.51 mbpd , up 7.2% m-o-m, led by higher Saudi and Iranian exports. # TROilResearch . Wish fulfillment 1 yr .  click to enlarge I do believe $ 26 is the low ; it sat isfies the equivalent leg Elliott measuring rule for targeting at 78%, and fundamentally probably forces re balancing in a big way. That being the case , this is possibly the last leg down in a corrective structure wave 2 or B , and will at some point be followed by a major move up that will be a 3rd wave or C wave. The 3rd wave or C wave is more often the most powerful and Fib retrace ment level s 39 and 3 6 look like potentially very important pivot points.     Shorter term the m