Monday, October 24, 2016

USD Update

After a terrific run up of about 4% over the last month, the USD may be due for the pause that refreshes. 
6mo. chart
click to enlarge
Note the negative divergence on the RSI. 
After breaking to new highs and successfully back testing that area around 97.50,
it is looking like a rather complete wave count on the leg up from 95.00. 

1 mo.
click to enlarge
Backing off for a modest retrace and consolidation could be expected. Clearly the 97.50 area is important.
This is likely either a complete 1st wave or  -3- of 1. In the latter scenario 97.50 the 4th of lesser degree, would likely hold followed by new highs for a -5- of 1. 
I lean toward the 2nd scenario looking at the BP and Euro.
A slightly higher high to complete wave 1 somewhere shy of 100.00, will also allow a more serious and lengthy wave 2 correction before the USD rips through long term resistance in a powerful wave 3.
 3yr



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