USD Update

After a terrific run up of about 4% over the last month, the USD may be due for the pause that refreshes. 
6mo. chart
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Note the negative divergence on the RSI. 
After breaking to new highs and successfully back testing that area around 97.50,
it is looking like a rather complete wave count on the leg up from 95.00. 

1 mo.
click to enlarge
Backing off for a modest retrace and consolidation could be expected. Clearly the 97.50 area is important.
This is likely either a complete 1st wave or  -3- of 1. In the latter scenario 97.50 the 4th of lesser degree, would likely hold followed by new highs for a -5- of 1. 
I lean toward the 2nd scenario looking at the BP and Euro.
A slightly higher high to complete wave 1 somewhere shy of 100.00, will also allow a more serious and lengthy wave 2 correction before the USD rips through long term resistance in a powerful wave 3.


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