Tuesday, October 4, 2016

Crude; Nothing Changes if Nothing Changes

WTI has been trading between 40 and 50 for the last 6 months, a range roughly 11% either side of 45.
As there really hasn't been much in the way of new information, merely old  information spun up a little differently, it's no surprise the same old numbers are repeatedly appearing before us.
6 mo.

click to enlarge
One of the key factors no doubt is hedging next years production, and as I write this, WTI cal 17 is just over 52 with CLX at 4860 . That level and slightly higher, has seen active hedging interest in the past.

Taking out the highs would suggest something WAS changing, but until that happens, the risk is greater of a return to the lower end of the range. 

Extraneous factors; USD strength, election tightening prior to Nov.8, consumer strength, DB, weather?

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