Thursday, September 1, 2016

Crude Flush

The move lower today has taken out some telling Elliott Wave points, signaling medium term weakness and bolstering the case for limited upside risk.

Specifically the Fibonacci .62 retrace of the last leg up provided only brief support yesterday afternoon and there has been an important overlap of a previous high. 
1 month chart





click to enlarge  
That overlap negates the possibility of this pullback being a corrective 4th wave to be followed by a 5th wave to new highs. 
In the current structure the risk is much higher now that the move up to 49.36 was part of a larger corrective structure and counter trend medium term. Testing the 40 low and even exceeding it are now definite possibilities.  
 1 yr chart
 click to enlarge

Very short term bounces can be expected of course. Here the Fib .382 is sitting on the 4th wave of lesser degree and that 50% retrace point really looks like an area that can be revisited.
No trading advise here friends purely bs


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