Wednesday, August 31, 2016

USD Time?

The USD is smack in the middle of its long standing range at 96.24. The big question is whether it will get into the upper half of that range and start to challenge some of the previous highs and signal longer term strength.
3 yr chart
click to enlarge
At this point the sideways structure IS on the mature side at 17 months. Sideways moves have only exceeded this once, 2012 to 2014, which lasted 23 months. 

Additionally it is possible to identify a double abc structure potentially completed.

 3 yr chart
click to enlarge
In the first series of abc above, the c =.78 of a. in the next abc series the c = .62 of b and b =.62 of a


6 mo chart
click to enlarge
And as you can see below once again USD is challenging the .62 retrace point of the previous leg, in this case the c from the second series.


At the moment then there are a number of resistance  points clustered just overhead; the median of the range at 96.24, the .618 retrace at 96.28, and the overlap of beginning of the last subwave down at 96.50.
Taking out 96.50 will confirm the beginning of a new structure up , potentially of a higher degree that challenges the top of the range seen over the last 2 years.

Why do we care? Crude of course.



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