Tuesday, May 17, 2016

Crude Topping?

This morning June WTI traded high at 48.42, July at 49.08 with June expiring Friday.
Many are familiar with the seasonal spring high seen quite regularly with the 30 yr. avg. hitting in mid May.  It's mid May.

click to enlarge

The lows of Feb at 26.05 were nearly spot on my target of 25.80, and caused me to get quite bullish at that time. While a V bottom is possible so is a very lengthy diagonal triangle 5th that produces a rounding bottom as a base.

click to enlarge

 If a diagonal 5th pattern were to develop you would label this rally as "b" and the 26.05 low the "a" of 5, anticipating an abcde. Note b = Fib .618 of a in the above.

 Y= .96 of W

And if you are a bull it would be nice if it stays above 47.
Note the minor neg divergence on the RSI in below chart.

Did I mention the USD? See previous post.



No comments:

Post a Comment