Tuesday, May 17, 2016

Crude Topping?

This morning June WTI traded high at 48.42, July at 49.08 with June expiring Friday.
Many are familiar with the seasonal spring high seen quite regularly with the 30 yr. avg. hitting in mid May.  It's mid May.

click to enlarge

The lows of Feb at 26.05 were nearly spot on my target of 25.80, and caused me to get quite bullish at that time. While a V bottom is possible so is a very lengthy diagonal triangle 5th that produces a rounding bottom as a base.

click to enlarge

 If a diagonal 5th pattern were to develop you would label this rally as "b" and the 26.05 low the "a" of 5, anticipating an abcde. Note b = Fib .618 of a in the above.

 Y= .96 of W

And if you are a bull it would be nice if it stays above 47.
Note the minor neg divergence on the RSI in below chart.

Did I mention the USD? See previous post.



Sunday, May 8, 2016

USD Time

That's right, the much maligned etc good ole buck, despite all the Feds wishing, is looking pretty good tonight.

Take a gander;
 3 yr. nearby
click to enlarge
It can be argued that USD has been consolidating in a choppy abc structure, retracing a modest Fibonacci .382, since Mar of 2015 and it has been making decent upside progress since the inflection point of May 3rd.

If that is the case, look out! Another leg up making new highs, will give it 5 waves up from the 2008 lows possibly targeting the 2001 highs of 121.

Needs to bust the nearby trend line for starters;

click to enlarge
Not to mention "Net USD longs have continued to drop. Positions are at their lowest since June 2014 just prior to the sharp increase in USD buying in H2 2014."  as of May 3, FX Street.