Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Gold Targets

The original commodity is attracting well deserved attention lately, including my own.
Basically it was the 50% pullback and subsequent solid support as it was retested.

Anyway well into a rip up through previous highs, the question arises; where to?

 In the above 6 mo. chart pls note that c= .382 of a, very likely completing a 4th wave consolidation
in a little triangle.  That formation suggests a market with a lot of pent up buying interest. They can't wait.

Looking at the longer term chart, the first fib resistance .236, and the trend lines on a channel dating back to 2013, are both being taking out now.

So if we are expecting a bog standard 5th wave the general rule is 5=1 OR .618 of waves 1 through 3.
It ain't going to be 5=1.

So  5= .618 of 1 thru 3 at 1330.
Seems a little tepid considering the circumstances (world wide central bank impotence) and obvious pent up buying interest.

5 = 1 thru 3 at 1417, slightly exceeding the .382 retrace.
5= 1.382 x waves 1 thru 3 at 1492, that is also a 50% retrace.

The look of this next break up, it's volume O/I and relative strength will indicate what to expect of wave 1 up.

Now just playing around in the realm of what if. What if we get 1492 and then a wave 2 pullback of 50% ? If  that was followed by another wave up that was 1.618 of 1, you would be challenging the old highs around 1828. Again just playing around here.

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