Tuesday, February 16, 2016

Crude Oil Rip; Head-fake or Real?

 The WTI rip up from the $26 downside target (see previous post) has covered a lot of ground,
$5.54 or 21%, in a very short time. The Fib .618 retrace was tagged in what can be counted as 5 waves up, and the last 2 bucks was done in low volume. A pullback could be expected.


It is possible that the $26 low was an "a" of a forth coming diagonal triangle 5th wave. That would make this move up an X wave and a series of slightly lower lows possible before a real pivot.
Notice I said slightly lower lows.


 Nearby WTI is already challenging the downward sloping trendline, and the roll into April will very likely help that along. Even if this move up is merely part of a short term consolidation, 34 to 36 looks very much in play as part an alternative abc count up.

There's a ton of shorts out there, both paper, physical and probably systemic by now.
Risk is now heavily to the upside and pullbacks should be taken advantage of.






Note that the above chart is the Apr WTI. The 50% pullback is at $31.25, in the support area of the 4th of lesser degree.

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