Wednesday, October 21, 2015

Key Support Test for Dec WTI

Dec WTI  under 44.30 doesn't leave many happy longs.

Looks like only 2 days worth of buying done under that level.

Tuesday, October 20, 2015

SP Mini Elliott Count

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Birds of a Feather

Sometimes these patterns are just staring you right in the face.

SP mini nearest 3 month 
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SP Mini nearest 3 yr.
Please note that the above chart ends in mid August 2015, to emphasis the similarities of the patterns
between the charts. Of course most (but not all) will remember what occurred in the last half of August.

SP Mini 5 Day
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SP Mini 1 Yr.
Again please note that the 1 yr chart above ends in mid August to emphasis the similarities between the patterns.

Sunday, October 18, 2015

Crude Resumes Downtrend

Short and medium term risk is to the downside. The recent little bounce looks very corrective with an "abc" structure retracing a modest Fib .382 of the 1st leg down; as suggested in the last post.

click to enlarge

Could it continue to chop to the upside? Sure, but it has already caused significant technical damage on the downside by overlapping the $47 level highs. Confirmation will be overlapping  $44.
Expect more of the same and new lows likely to boot.
However ....I love WTI under $38. Like at $36 which would be .81 retrace of 9.75 to 148 , scale down to $32.56 which is a straight 78% off $148.

Tuesday, October 13, 2015

WTI Update

The Crude pulled back to the .61 retrace at 46.60 which was looked for in the recent Oct 9 post.
 So far the move down looks like 5 waves rather than an abc. That definitely suggests a number of possibilities.

1) It's a resumption of the preceding primary trend and there will be new lows to come after a 2 wave back up or

2) It's an A wave down and there will be at least another C wave down following whatever bounce the B up delivers (could retrace the entire A move down btw).

3) Any short term upside play should be viewed cautiously, and the bears will fade it heavily.

click to enlarge
Keeping a close eye on this bounce for indication of the bulls vs bears conviction. Short term could be good for a buck.

Still love WTI long term. See preceding posts.

Monday, October 12, 2015

China; Deadest Of Dead Cats

Tonights import/export numbers from China provoked me into looking at that little market mover again the formerly impressive Shanghai Comp
Not too impressive....

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Barely rates the description of bounce, dead cat or otherwise.
So check out my preceding posts on the Shanghai Comp, particularly July 7 

In any case the big problem for the world is the overall Elliott Wave count on this market which
still has a high likely hood of tremendous downside risk.

click to enlarge

The "B" wave on this 15 year chart is a classic abc zig zag structure in Elliott Wave theory, retracing a Fibonacci  .78 of the A leg down. 
The "C" wave down measured targets are;
C=A at 718 
C=.78 of A at 1700
C=.618 of A at 2422
Entire History of Comp
click to enlarge
Note the lows on this very long term chart are overlapping the preceding highs, suggesting an abc structure history.

Friday, October 9, 2015

WTI Early Resistance @ Fibonacci .62

The latest leg up in WTI from the $44 low on Oct 2 hit Fibonacci .62 resistance here. Is it ready to resume the down trend?
At the moment it sure looks that way short term. But there are some long term reasons for being very cautious about that bandwagon.  See Why I Love WTI from Sept.26. As pointed out there, "risk is massively to the upside" and it s still true. Of all the potential counts $51 was the closest target.

click to enlarge
(I love it when the termination points of the waves are hitting actual fibonacci numbers; it makes doing the numbers in my head on the run really easy. )
c = .62 of a @ todays highs
also the entirety of the abc is 13.17
Do we get an X wave followed by another abc up? Or are new lows in store?

A test of the break out might be expected around the 50% or even .62 retrace.
Medium term I'm neutral, BUT longer term I still love WTI.

Wednesday, October 7, 2015

Why SP 500 and Nat Gas Look Alike

It kept popping up over the summer, " this chart reminds me of the natty".  What could the SP500 / equities generally,  have in common with the Natural Gas chart structure? Could be an ABC structure and what I think of as a symmetrical or Rorschach look.

 Nat Gas 25 yr. Chart

 SP500 5 yr
click to enlarge
The SP500 is a little asymmetrical at the moment but so was the Natty at different points. 
The main takeaway is the strong potential for an abc structure for equities over the long term as we go forward into the bear market of (likely) Grand SuperCycle Degree. 
Pls see The Equities Problem from April 2
SP500 3 mo. Chart