Saturday, September 26, 2015

Why I Hate Bonds

In 1984 I worked at E.F. Hutton as part of the Commercial Energy Desk with Vonderhiede and Zimmerman. I attended a lecture by an old school CTA named David Johnson who was a brilliant, and highly successful technical analyst and trader, with a large team next door to ours.  It was on rates.

He described an unusual sloping head and shoulders pattern that was breaking the neckline, signaling a long term decline in rates and all that implied. Boy was he right.

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While I am not a big head and shoulders person, it is hard NOT to remember what a key tell that turned out to be on one of the major pivots of all time.

Now take a look at these 10 yr. charts....you tell me.
25 yr.chart

 click to enlarge

5 yr.chart
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1 yr chart
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