Wednesday, August 12, 2015

OH OH Equities

August.  Spending some well deserved time with the family out on the Island? After all we've been range trading for 9 months, and everything suggests it will continue  at least for a couple more weeks right? I'm heading to Maine myself Friday.
Sept SP
as of yesterday
click to enlarge
Looking good right? Maybe it IS a consolidation pattern and breaks high, after all there's the Fed Put.

Of course things can sneak up on you. Here's this mornings look at the nearby INDU;

click to enlarge
Thank you China for giving the market the excuse it needed to finally roll over. A Head and shoulders neckline break, last night's " death cross" of the 50/200 dmv, and continued turmoil in the overnight markets should result in downside acceleration today trapping all the longs since Feb.


From an Elliott Wave perspective, the pattern above has been an ongoing (if slow) exercise in open mindedness. The SP high on the nearby contract was achieved May 19, while the Sep contract hit highs July 20, 2 months later! Not an easy market to sell. 

The move down from July 20 has a very back and forth pattern that may actually turn out to be better counted as abc's than impulse waves of 5. Would that be unusual for long term bear market of historical Grand Super Cycle Degree? Maybe unusual not impossible. 
If that is the case, anybody waiting for an obvious blow off top followed by a clear accelerating impulse wave gap down type pivot, is now pretty uncomfortable.

I suppose if you were a Junior trader at the PPT you would try to defend the lows at 2034/2040.

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