Thursday, May 21, 2015

Epic Pivot Will Follow Greatest Bull in History

Stocks have reached a measured target for the completion of the wedge or diagonal triangle 5th wave (pls see previous post).
 I wrote about the significance of the price point we surpassed Tuesday in the Nov. 9, 2014 post, Greatest Bull Market in History - Almost! stating,
  "The SP 500 will have gained as much from the lows of 2009, as it did form the lows of 1975 to the highs of 2000, or 1465 pts, when it reaches 2131." The SP500 has achieved the greatest uninterrupted bull run in history by 2 points!
Note the deterioration in the strength of the move below.
Weekly
 click to enlarge
Where do you decide to get out of long term core equities? Do you wait for a a greater than 10% move down? That 's not an uncommon number but its a long way down from here.

Weekly
 
click to enlarge
That 10% pull back would of course put the market at new lows for the year.
 Daily
 click to enlarge

The earliest confirmation that I will use for the end of the wedge/ diagonal triangle 5th wave, will be
overlap of the leg labeled "a" in the below chart. Note that it is also around the .382 retrace and in the area of the 4th of lesser degree on the last subwave count up of "c". 



 It is always difficult to know how to take advantage of these kinds of epic turns and really new, opportunities. Unfortunately, there is a high probability of the top here being of VERY large degree Elliott significance ie Grand Super Cycle. Being early in positioning for an extended, potentially generational move , will be important as trading from the short side is dangerous  and access to capital will become difficult...possibly impossible, despite precautions.

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