Friday, November 7, 2014

Natural Gas Targets New Highs

First of all please see  Natural Gas Headed for Lows from Sept 4
It completely describes all the action in Nat Gas since that date.

In it I state, " Yes, new lows are likely and will offer a superb buying opportunity"
and "fresh lows ARE likely, but considering the seasonal factors and Elliott support not by very much.. $3.65 to $3.55 MAYBE."
Weekly
click to enlarge

Another abc pattern up, which sure looks like it's underway, projects to what?
The last abc went from the late 2012 print of 3.05 to the high of 6.55 for a move of 3.50. An equal leg targets around 7.05, a new high.
On a wildly optimistic note; the last abc was 1.64 x the preceding abc up from 1.90 to 4.00.
If the pattern is repeated that targets 9.13.
A 50 % retrace of 15.78 to 1.90 is at 8.84.

Shorter term it's looking a little overdone.
Daily

click to enlarge

And if this thrust up is a 1, then the 2 could carry back down to retest the 4.02/ gap level,
as the 50% and .612 respectively, fall in there.
However there is some chance of slightly higher highs prior to a pullback and 
the .382 retrace of the move down from 6.50 to 3.53 hits around 4.65 as resistance.



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