Friday, November 14, 2014

Natural Gas .618 Retrace and Targets Higher

Yup, that ole Elliott .618 retrace back in the news.
Here's the looked for pullback and whether it pivots from here or the .76 retrace at $3.80 it's presenting a nice entry ahead of winter.
Daily
click to enlarge

The thrust up from 3.56 traveled .98 and counts as a 1 up of course.
The pullback is likely a 2 back and they can be deep.
Note the gap is closed perfectly at 3.96.

The next leg up , the 3, can easily be 1.618 of the 1 which targets 5.55
Even if it's a "c" wave and is equal to the "a", it targets 4.94 from here, taking out the previous high at 4.89.


Sunday, November 9, 2014

Greatest Bull Market in History - Almost!

Just a little look at the big picture;
SP500 Weekly Log Scale
click to enlarge
 I can forget the significance of the arithmetic when I look at 
 a log scale.
The SP 500 will have gained as much from the lows of 2009, as it did form the lows of 1975 to the highs of 2000, or 1465 pts, when it reaches 2131. Think about that, and compare the quality of the real economic gains during the two periods. 
(Some count the bull rally of the last century as beginning in 1982 from 104 so that would see 2090 as an equal move up from 666.) 

On the Dow Industrials we are there.
(charts courtesy of The Keystone Speculator) 


click to enlarge

The 2000 high of 11722 less the 1982 low of 784 produces an equal leg up from the 2009 low at 17574! Last Friday nights close.

Not just new highs but EQUAL to the greatest bull in history. Of course, it doesn't even come close as percent move, but hey.

Here is another interesting chart:



Note; like cycles, regression is interesting but very unreliable for timing trades.












Friday, November 7, 2014

Natural Gas Targets New Highs

First of all please see  Natural Gas Headed for Lows from Sept 4
It completely describes all the action in Nat Gas since that date.

In it I state, " Yes, new lows are likely and will offer a superb buying opportunity"
and "fresh lows ARE likely, but considering the seasonal factors and Elliott support not by very much.. $3.65 to $3.55 MAYBE."
Weekly
click to enlarge

Another abc pattern up, which sure looks like it's underway, projects to what?
The last abc went from the late 2012 print of 3.05 to the high of 6.55 for a move of 3.50. An equal leg targets around 7.05, a new high.
On a wildly optimistic note; the last abc was 1.64 x the preceding abc up from 1.90 to 4.00.
If the pattern is repeated that targets 9.13.
A 50 % retrace of 15.78 to 1.90 is at 8.84.

Shorter term it's looking a little overdone.
Daily

click to enlarge

And if this thrust up is a 1, then the 2 could carry back down to retest the 4.02/ gap level,
as the 50% and .612 respectively, fall in there.
However there is some chance of slightly higher highs prior to a pullback and 
the .382 retrace of the move down from 6.50 to 3.53 hits around 4.65 as resistance.