Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Gasoline: $6.00 at the Pump?

Markets in general have, for quite awhile, been rather boring. That is about to change. Gasoline is a good example; it has traded within 16% of $3.00 since January of 2011; 2.5 years! That range appears to be at high risk of being taken out explosively to the upside. So much for boredom.
First a little background material.
Gasoline has a pretty regular seasonal pattern. Walter Zimmerman's work on this has the mid-summer low, occurring on avg. July 21, followed by a 32% rally into October.
A 32% rally from the June 26 low of 2.69 targets 3.55, taking out the overhead resistance line seen below at around 3.44

click to enlarge

So Gasoline has been trending sideways, considered corrective in most all technical methods, for an extended period of time. In Elliott Wave terms there is a good case for an "abc" count down from the highs labeled "Y" ,  probably completing this correction . Additionally gasoline is currently  subject to a bullish seasonal pattern that can last for another 2 or 3 months.  Note the increase in volume on the recent thrust up from C.

click to enlarge
Looking back further it can be seen that new highs above the $3.65  will also be seen as a much longer term breakout; potentially targeting roughly $5.40 on a C=A equivalent leg basis.
Hence $6.00 at the pump.

There's a little pullback going on right now on low volume; probably won't last long.

click to enlarge
The "-1-" up is 47 pt.s
if there is an abc -2- pullback of 50% to 2.93 
any leg greater than .50 up will put in new highs.
If a 3rd leg up was 1.38 x .47 = 3.58 ( see avg. seasonal rally target above at 3.55)

I'm pretty skeptical that a move of this magnitude can be demand driven...more likely supply disruption from 
any number of sources will have to kick in to maintain momentum.

And LONGER TERM here's a really handy interactive map using the latest projections on sea levels going forward....
plug in your local refinery location.