Monday, March 25, 2013

Riiiiiiiiiiing!!!

No one rings a bell at the top.” 
Big Media loves that saying, I wonder why?



click to enlarge
Gap opening to barely new highs immediately followed by vicious reversal.  A " key reversal day", if it settles below 14,500. Taking out the recent horizontal support at the lows of the last week, 14,380 is certainly within reach.

Ok so whats that mean for the longer term, buy dips right?
Sorry don't think so.
Daily
click to enlarge
The blistering pace up over the last 4 mo.s is unsustainable. Do you think the Dow will be at 17,000 by mid summer? Note the RSI negative divergence and MACD already rolling over. 
Not much obvious Fibonacci on this pattern up but I am still working on it.
However there is a superficial 5 or abcd count up from mid Nov. lows.
It just needs to take out a few trend lines.




The VIX reached record lows and looks almost like an island reversal.
BTW take a look at past spring lows in the VIX and subsequent market action.

Good luck and Happy Easter.


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