Monday, March 25, 2013

Riiiiiiiiiiing!!!

No one rings a bell at the top.” 
Big Media loves that saying, I wonder why?



click to enlarge
Gap opening to barely new highs immediately followed by vicious reversal.  A " key reversal day", if it settles below 14,500. Taking out the recent horizontal support at the lows of the last week, 14,380 is certainly within reach.

Ok so whats that mean for the longer term, buy dips right?
Sorry don't think so.
Daily
click to enlarge
The blistering pace up over the last 4 mo.s is unsustainable. Do you think the Dow will be at 17,000 by mid summer? Note the RSI negative divergence and MACD already rolling over. 
Not much obvious Fibonacci on this pattern up but I am still working on it.
However there is a superficial 5 or abcd count up from mid Nov. lows.
It just needs to take out a few trend lines.




The VIX reached record lows and looks almost like an island reversal.
BTW take a look at past spring lows in the VIX and subsequent market action.

Good luck and Happy Easter.


Sunday, March 24, 2013

Euro End Game or Why the SP is Rocketing

First of all the following post found on Zero Hedge, is an excellent readable summary, and likely conclusion.

JPMorgan On The Inevitability Of Europe-Wide Capital Controls

 Given the current path Europe is traveling down it is no wonder that we have seen a pretty perky dollar lately.
Daily
 A little short term consolidation looks likely, and if you were Ben what would you do?
Last thing in the world he wants is a strong USD. BUT..


USD has been in a range since the 2008 crap out and it's right in the middle of it now, heading for the upside.

Of course if you"ve been burned by Gov.s and are shy of paper there is the obvious solution.
Weekly

A breakout projects to about $3000. 

Daily

Above 1640 and it's going. 

Physical assets have their own limitations however, and can be subject to controls as well.
When capital controls are really put in place and the population KNOWS the currency will be worthless, of course they will buy anything .....even stocks. 




Monday, March 11, 2013

Natural Gas Update

From the Feb.15  post Natural Gas Measured Targets

"Expectations then would be for a short term move up to the 3.50 /3.70 area followed by a move lower to 3.00 or more likely 2.80 and possibly, though less likely, even 2.40 ( if its a .76 retrace).  That would complete the C of a X wave down." 

I would encourage readers to check out the Feb. 15 post for additional detail.

In any event, if you are looking for an opportunity to take profits/ position on the short side, here it is.
Daily
click to enlarge
The B wave is currently at the  .618 retrace of A.  The c will = a @ 3.72 

And medium to longer term sub $3.00 has to be bought ( see the previous mentioned post).

PS  For those looking for hours of entertainment I finally got around to updating the Crudewire Archives: Natural Gas: A Chronological History Of Analysis