Natural Gas Measured Targets
The last Natural Gas Forecast published here was on Dec. 1, 2012, a few days after the $4.00 top, and is still current....
"The "c = 1.616 of a" and weekly RSI negative divergence increases the odds that an initial "abc" up is complete.
An X wave retracement of Fibonacci 50% or .618 has to be allowed for, so downside targets are 3.00 and 2.80."
"The "c = 1.616 of a" and weekly RSI negative divergence increases the odds that an initial "abc" up is complete.
An X wave retracement of Fibonacci 50% or .618 has to be allowed for, so downside targets are 3.00 and 2.80."
Daily
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This is playing out exactly as forecast.
I believe that natty is smack in the middle of an extended correction beginning on Dec 26 2012.
An examination of the sub wave labeling above, reveals that b of B of X may just have completed or nearly so. The sub waves within the b of B are; -c-=.76 of -a-, at the lows of 3.14 Thur. the 14th.
Expectations then would be for a short term move up to the 3.50 /3.70 area followed by a move lower to 3.00 or more likely 2.80 and possibly, though less likely, even 2.40 ( if its a .76 retrace). That would complete the C of a X wave down.
So the next pullback below $3.00 will present a mid to long term opportunity to position for the next series of ABC's up.
If that move launches from 2.80
Longer Term Nat Gas Measured Targets are;
Y = .618 of W @ 4.10
Y= W @ 5.10
Y= 1.618 of W @ 6.20
Y= 2 of W @ 7.00
Monthly
click to enlarge
Please note the ABC corrective structure up from mid 2006 to mid 2008; in that structure the C= 1.74 of the A.
C waves and 3 waves are commonly Fibonacci multiples of the preceding A or 1 waves.
Additionally, a very modest .382 retrace of the 15.78 to 1.90 long term move down, comes in at 7.20,
$ 2.80 x 2.6 = 7.28
and 162% move up from $2.80 is $7.33
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