Friday, February 15, 2013

Natural Gas Measured Targets

The last Natural Gas Forecast published  here  was on Dec. 1, 2012, a few days after the $4.00 top, and is still current....

"The "c = 1.616 of a" and weekly RSI negative divergence increases the odds that an initial "abc" up is complete.
An X wave retracement of Fibonacci 50% or .618 has to be allowed for, so downside targets are 3.00 and 2.80."
Daily
click to enlarge
This is playing out exactly as forecast. 
I believe that natty is smack in the middle of  an extended correction beginning on Dec 26 2012.
An examination of the sub wave labeling above, reveals that  b of B of X may just have completed or nearly so. The sub waves within the b of B are;  -c-=.76 of -a-, at the lows of 3.14 Thur. the 14th. 

Expectations then would be for a short term move up to the 3.50 /3.70 area followed by a move lower to 3.00 or more likely 2.80 and possibly, though less likely, even 2.40 ( if its a .76 retrace).  That would complete the C of a X wave down.
So the next pullback below $3.00 will present a mid to long term opportunity to position for the next series of ABC's up.

If that move launches from  2.80 
Longer Term Nat Gas Measured Targets are; 
Y = .618 of W @ 4.10
Y= W @ 5.10
Y= 1.618 of W @ 6.20
Y= 2  of W @ 7.00
Monthly
click to enlarge


Please note the ABC corrective structure up from mid 2006 to mid 2008; in that structure the C= 1.74 of the A. 
C  waves and 3 waves are commonly Fibonacci multiples of the preceding A or 1 waves.
Additionally, a very modest .382 retrace of the 15.78 to 1.90 long term move down, comes in at 7.20,
$ 2.80 x 2.6 = 7.28 
and 162%  move up from $2.80 is $7.33