Sunday, August 11, 2013

Hurricane Season : Batten Down The Hatches

Have a read of the ever interesting Wunderground's August 9  post, on the Upcoming Hurricane Season; then run don't walk, to replenish your candles, fresh water, and gasoline supplies (see previous post). 

ought to put a little ,ctive Atlantic Hurricane Season Still Predicted by NOAA, An Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Better bust out the candles folksStill Predicted by NOAA, CSU, and TSRCSU,

nd TSR

Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Gasoline: $6.00 at the Pump?

Markets in general have, for quite awhile, been rather boring. That is about to change. Gasoline is a good example; it has traded within 16% of $3.00 since January of 2011; 2.5 years! That range appears to be at high risk of being taken out explosively to the upside. So much for boredom.
First a little background material.
Gasoline has a pretty regular seasonal pattern. Walter Zimmerman's work on this has the mid-summer low, occurring on avg. July 21, followed by a 32% rally into October.
A 32% rally from the June 26 low of 2.69 targets 3.55, taking out the overhead resistance line seen below at around 3.44

click to enlarge

So Gasoline has been trending sideways, considered corrective in most all technical methods, for an extended period of time. In Elliott Wave terms there is a good case for an "abc" count down from the highs labeled "Y" ,  probably completing this correction . Additionally gasoline is currently  subject to a bullish seasonal pattern that can last for another 2 or 3 months.  Note the increase in volume on the recent thrust up from C.

click to enlarge
Looking back further it can be seen that new highs above the $3.65  will also be seen as a much longer term breakout; potentially targeting roughly $5.40 on a C=A equivalent leg basis.
Hence $6.00 at the pump.

There's a little pullback going on right now on low volume; probably won't last long.

click to enlarge
The "-1-" up is 47 pt.s
if there is an abc -2- pullback of 50% to 2.93 
any leg greater than .50 up will put in new highs.
If a 3rd leg up was 1.38 x .47 = 3.58 ( see avg. seasonal rally target above at 3.55)

I'm pretty skeptical that a move of this magnitude can be demand driven...more likely supply disruption from 
any number of sources will have to kick in to maintain momentum.

And LONGER TERM here's a really handy interactive map using the latest projections on sea levels going forward....
plug in your local refinery location.

Thursday, May 23, 2013

Riiiiiiiiiing!!! Riiiiiiiiiing!!!!

Sometimes you have to ring twice. This is a classic blow off top and reversal. 
Yesterday was itself a classic "reversal day", including taking out the trendline it had been moving up during May.
The catastrophic collapse in Japan overnight and the follow through this morning in our markets, strongly suggest that all in all, after this record run up, we're heading for a record run down. 

Can the Fed prevent it? That is the big question.
I will have to follow up later today with a Fibonacci and Elliott take on charts, but for now "sell in May go away" seems to be true again.

Monday, March 25, 2013


No one rings a bell at the top.” 
Big Media loves that saying, I wonder why?

click to enlarge
Gap opening to barely new highs immediately followed by vicious reversal.  A " key reversal day", if it settles below 14,500. Taking out the recent horizontal support at the lows of the last week, 14,380 is certainly within reach.

Ok so whats that mean for the longer term, buy dips right?
Sorry don't think so.
click to enlarge
The blistering pace up over the last 4 mo.s is unsustainable. Do you think the Dow will be at 17,000 by mid summer? Note the RSI negative divergence and MACD already rolling over. 
Not much obvious Fibonacci on this pattern up but I am still working on it.
However there is a superficial 5 or abcd count up from mid Nov. lows.
It just needs to take out a few trend lines.

The VIX reached record lows and looks almost like an island reversal.
BTW take a look at past spring lows in the VIX and subsequent market action.

Good luck and Happy Easter.

Sunday, March 24, 2013

Euro End Game or Why the SP is Rocketing

First of all the following post found on Zero Hedge, is an excellent readable summary, and likely conclusion.

JPMorgan On The Inevitability Of Europe-Wide Capital Controls

 Given the current path Europe is traveling down it is no wonder that we have seen a pretty perky dollar lately.
 A little short term consolidation looks likely, and if you were Ben what would you do?
Last thing in the world he wants is a strong USD. BUT..

USD has been in a range since the 2008 crap out and it's right in the middle of it now, heading for the upside.

Of course if you"ve been burned by Gov.s and are shy of paper there is the obvious solution.

A breakout projects to about $3000. 


Above 1640 and it's going. 

Physical assets have their own limitations however, and can be subject to controls as well.
When capital controls are really put in place and the population KNOWS the currency will be worthless, of course they will buy anything .....even stocks. 

Monday, March 11, 2013

Natural Gas Update

From the Feb.15  post Natural Gas Measured Targets

"Expectations then would be for a short term move up to the 3.50 /3.70 area followed by a move lower to 3.00 or more likely 2.80 and possibly, though less likely, even 2.40 ( if its a .76 retrace).  That would complete the C of a X wave down." 

I would encourage readers to check out the Feb. 15 post for additional detail.

In any event, if you are looking for an opportunity to take profits/ position on the short side, here it is.
click to enlarge
The B wave is currently at the  .618 retrace of A.  The c will = a @ 3.72 

And medium to longer term sub $3.00 has to be bought ( see the previous mentioned post).

PS  For those looking for hours of entertainment I finally got around to updating the Crudewire Archives: Natural Gas: A Chronological History Of Analysis

Friday, February 15, 2013

Natural Gas Measured Targets

The last Natural Gas Forecast published  here  was on Dec. 1, 2012, a few days after the $4.00 top, and is still current....

"The "c = 1.616 of a" and weekly RSI negative divergence increases the odds that an initial "abc" up is complete.
An X wave retracement of Fibonacci 50% or .618 has to be allowed for, so downside targets are 3.00 and 2.80."
click to enlarge
This is playing out exactly as forecast. 
I believe that natty is smack in the middle of  an extended correction beginning on Dec 26 2012.
An examination of the sub wave labeling above, reveals that  b of B of X may just have completed or nearly so. The sub waves within the b of B are;  -c-=.76 of -a-, at the lows of 3.14 Thur. the 14th. 

Expectations then would be for a short term move up to the 3.50 /3.70 area followed by a move lower to 3.00 or more likely 2.80 and possibly, though less likely, even 2.40 ( if its a .76 retrace).  That would complete the C of a X wave down.
So the next pullback below $3.00 will present a mid to long term opportunity to position for the next series of ABC's up.

If that move launches from  2.80 
Longer Term Nat Gas Measured Targets are; 
Y = .618 of W @ 4.10
Y= W @ 5.10
Y= 1.618 of W @ 6.20
Y= 2  of W @ 7.00
click to enlarge

Please note the ABC corrective structure up from mid 2006 to mid 2008; in that structure the C= 1.74 of the A. 
C  waves and 3 waves are commonly Fibonacci multiples of the preceding A or 1 waves.
Additionally, a very modest .382 retrace of the 15.78 to 1.90 long term move down, comes in at 7.20,
$ 2.80 x 2.6 = 7.28 
and 162%  move up from $2.80 is $7.33

Thursday, January 3, 2013

And The Winner Is......

CRUDEWIRE! Yes folks, Crudewire has won the Crudewire Prize for Best Natural Gas Analyst of the Year 2012. And well deserved if I do say so myself. Crudewire Prize: Natural Gas Analyst of the Year
And just to tie up loose ends; from the last natural gas post of 2012 on Dec 1, Natural Gas Elliott Support And Targets

"The "c = 1.616 of a" and weekly RSI negative divergence increases the odds that an initial "abc" up is complete.

An X wave retracement of Fibonacci 50% or .618 has to be allowed for, so downside targets are 3.00 and 2.80."

Can't wait to tuck into that private label Crudewire Barbeque Sauce etc.
And for those of you feeling a twinge of envy there's always next year. Have a great one.