Saturday, December 1, 2012

Natural Gas Elliott Support And Targets

In the Oct. 9 post, I targeted around 4.00 for Natty and more recently the Nov.15 post Natural Gas Elliott Targets concluded; "after 7 months of a bull stance on Natty.....to the sidelines." 

That post also asked:

"Why not go short?
The long term ABC down from 15.78 to 1.90 has not been seriously retraced yet, in either price or time.
Fibonacci .236 retrace of that 6. 3  yr move of 13.88  hits at 5.17, and the 7 mo.s up is negligible.
Additionally the structure up has prob still got another leg to complete following a consolidation under 4.00. "
Weekly

click to enlarge
The prob that NG may get a short term consolidation under 4.00, to be followed by another thrust toward 5.17 to complete an ABC up, has receded somewhat. 
The "c = 1.616 of a" and weekly RSI negative divergence increases the odds that an initial "abc" up is complete.
An X wave retracement of Fibonacci 50% or .618 has to be allowed for, so downside targets are 3.00 and 2.80.

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