Monday, December 24, 2012

ZeroHedge Hits New Low

Outrage and sadness on Christmas Eve.
 As a regular reader of ZeroHedge ( the worlds most read economic blog) I've come to tolerate a lot of right wing ideological opinion, however the following highlighted clip sickened me, and marks the last visit I will make to that blog.
 On Christmas Eve morning?

Friday, December 21, 2012

The End is Nigh- Merry Christmas

YES! The end IS nigh. And I dont just mean year end. The much hyped Mayan Calender harmonic cycle thingy....that would be today yes. Now why would anybody pay the least bit pf attention to that you might ask.
Well the last time one of the Mayan Calender cycles ended (dont ask me which one) was like Aug.20 1987 +/- a few days. (I'doing this from my phone).
Those old enough will remember that event as being marked by significant media hype to get people to hold hands around the world in some sort of effort to affect the positive cosmic outcome.
That weekend also marked the high of the INDU prior to the decline that culminated in Black Monday Oct.19 1987.
Merry Christmas.

Monday, December 17, 2012

Crudewire Prize: Crude Oil Analyst of the Year

Announcing The CRUDEWIRE Prize for Crude Oil Analyst of the Year.
The prize will be awarded to the Crude Oil Analyst with the most accurate and spectacular, documented market forecasts for the preceding year, as determined by an anonymous panel of industry peers. Don't ask.
The CRUDEWIRE Prize will consist of 2 case's of private label CRUDEWIRE Hot Sauce ,  and a large jar of Tums.
The Prize will be awarded on New Years Eve, and all documentation must be received by Dec.29th.

Now on this one somebody beside myself has a pretty good chance of winning. 
I posted very little over the last year on Crude Oil,  having not had a clear idea of how the Elliott Wave count might resolve itself  but, as it turns out,  neither did the market. Still the WTI/Brent Spread work was hot.

January 9
WTI/ Brent
February 9
WTI / Brent Update
May 3
WTI/ Brent Update
August 20
WTI Medium Term Elliott Update
December 6
WTI Medium Term Elliott Update

Come on, somebody out there must have done better than this.
Happy Holidays
Guy Bishop

Thursday, December 13, 2012

Crudewire Prize: Natural Gas Analyst of the Year

That's right;  Announcing The CRUDEWIRE Prize for Natural Gas Analyst of the Year.
The prize will be awarded to the Natural Gas Analyst with the most accurate and spectacular, documented market forecasts for the preceding year, as determined by an anonymous panel of industry peers.
The CRUDEWIRE Prize will consist of a case of private label CRUDEWIRE Barbecue sauce, a case of Heineken, and a large jar of Tums.
The Prize will be awarded on New Years Eve, and all documentation must be received by Dec.29th.

And to kick things off, I hereby nominate.....(drum roll please)....myself.

Natural Gas Hits Long Term Target
May 1
Natural Gas Catches a Bid
May 17
Natty and Chesapeake
June 28
Natural Gas Update
July 1
Natural Gas Hits Target
Post #1001- Natural Gas Update
Sept. 3
Natural Gas Seasonal Low?
Natural Gas Target Update
Natural Gas Elliott Targets
Dec. 1
Natural Gas Elliott Support And Targets

Comments of course are welcome, along with any and all nominations (which I guarantee to publish) .

Merry Christmas
Guy W Bishop

Monday, December 10, 2012

Equities Sellers; Your Time is Now.

That's right , this is where the indexes, esp. the INDU are most vulnerable. After a really decent bounce, nearly a Fibonacci .618 retrace, the hourly relative strength is showing negative divergence and we are fast approaching the end of the year for those needing to lock in.  If selling is going to show up this is a really likely point in time and price.
Adding to the risk here is the overall picture of a potentially completed corrective structure up from the 2009 lows, followed by an initial wave 1 down,  and now 2.   And so, a wave 3 down is possible from right around here.
click to enlarge

click to enlarge
A 3rd wave down, of course is usually characterized by multiple accelerating sub waves that eventually 
carry it to a Fibonacci multiple of the 1st wave...1.618 or even 2.618 .
A 3rd wave would = 2.618 of 1 around 10000 in this case.

Shorter term; 
taking out the 1300 level ought to raise the red flags.

Of course as pointed out in previous posts this COULD just creep up in a choppy slow painfull reiteration the wedging action seen in W and Y waves to double top next year. 
Our future should be revealed soon.

Thursday, December 6, 2012

Crude Oil Outlook

Been awhile since Crudewire turned attention to crude oil...for good reason ...there has been nothing to report except nothing to report.
click to enlarge
WTI has been trading for the most part between 75 and 105 for 3 years and is now smack in the middle of that range.
Normally a flag would be expected to break to the upside. Less sure in this case though. For all the previously argued reasons.
C will = A at around 74

Brent might have a cleaner Elliott wave structure to look at.
click to enlarge
The Y= .95 of the W, giving significance to the related nature of the 2 legs and suggesting that the structure is complete. 
Shorter term a test of the low of  the range has a slightly greater chance of being seen , but it can well be just part of further sideways consolidation lasting several more months, rather than the beginning of an extended wave down.

Wednesday, December 5, 2012

INDU Elliott Update

The INDU presents a simpler  Elliott count.  The probability of the count being correct is higher when it is clear and conforms to more of Elliott's Principals.
click to enlarge
There are no overlaps in the 5 count down. The 3 wave is 1.5x the 1 wave, and the 5 wave is 1.5x the 3 wave.
So far it has had a simple 50% retrace of the 5 count down . The corrective move up has overlaps and can be counted as an abc up.

In this count if the upward abc correction is complete,  risk of an accelerating move down is very high from here, in ether a 3wave of larger degree or ( less likely) a C wave.

click to enlarge
The next major support (really has to hold for the bulls) is 12017. An accelerating 3 down will go through that like butter.

Next few days ought to be " inerestin".

Saturday, December 1, 2012

Natural Gas Elliott Support And Targets

In the Oct. 9 post, I targeted around 4.00 for Natty and more recently the Nov.15 post Natural Gas Elliott Targets concluded; "after 7 months of a bull stance on the sidelines." 

That post also asked:

"Why not go short?
The long term ABC down from 15.78 to 1.90 has not been seriously retraced yet, in either price or time.
Fibonacci .236 retrace of that 6. 3  yr move of 13.88  hits at 5.17, and the 7 mo.s up is negligible.
Additionally the structure up has prob still got another leg to complete following a consolidation under 4.00. "

click to enlarge
The prob that NG may get a short term consolidation under 4.00, to be followed by another thrust toward 5.17 to complete an ABC up, has receded somewhat. 
The "c = 1.616 of a" and weekly RSI negative divergence increases the odds that an initial "abc" up is complete.
An X wave retracement of Fibonacci 50% or .618 has to be allowed for, so downside targets are 3.00 and 2.80.