Monday, November 12, 2012

SPX Update

Is this the genuine article, the resumption of the  Grand Super Cycle correction down? Finally?
The high made by the SPX at 1474.50 is mighty close to the measured targets of 1478 and 1487 discussed in the previous post, SPX Elliott Wave Update, Alert, and Targets from Oct.19. And that IS the most important consideration.
Check out the chart from the Oct 19. post;
click to enlarge
The .618 Fibonacci relationship of each successive leg to the preceding leg is obvious and telling. 
During the run up from 1993 to 2000 each successive leg was Fibonacci 1.618 of the preceding leg (thats a bull).

...However... (there's always a few qualifiers)
Daily

click to enlarge
The move off the very highs does not really count well as an impulse wave. Yet.
It also left a number of potential continuations of the abc structure up unexplored, as well as not quite tagging the 1478 to 1487 area (not strictly required by any means).
 In any case, remaining open minded about the market's ability to pull out one more upside iteration has certainly payed off over the last couple years.

Meanwhile note the 50% retrace achieved last week and somewhat oversold RSI.

Short term a little bounce certainly could be looked for, with resistance at the 1400 area of course, and above that, the  .618 retrace of the last leg down from 1432, at 1412.
These will be important levels to watch with early resumption of the down move signaling an extension and acceleration in a good ole -3- of 3 scenario.

On the upside, if it can overlap 1432  it will likely try to test the 1487 level. If it does count your lucky stars and run.




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