Thursday, November 15, 2012

Natural Gas Elliott Targets

Please take a moment to check out the previous posts beginning with the last one of  Oct.9;
Natural Gas Target Update

"The Y will equal the W at 3.96. The 50% retrace of 6.11 to 1.90 hits at 4.01. 
The 4.00 area is really the hurdle both technically and of course fundamentally, and for that reason is begging to be tested.
So another short term pullback or consolidation that retests the break out should be seen as an opportunity. (that would have been 3.29, it only made 3.33)
Y = 1.382 of W at 4.48 also the .618 retrace of 6.11 to 1.90
 Y  = 1.62 of W at 4.81 "

Since the  April 19 post, Natural Gas Hits Long Term Target, Natty has had a 100% move. 
As can be seen below there is some Fibonacci resistance right here at 3.83, and of course just overhead at the 4.00 area (Y=W @ 3.96, 50% retrace 6.11 to 1.90) .  The entire ABC down from 15.78 is retraced a Fibonacci .146 at 3.92
Also the late autumn seasonal high for Natty over avg 20 years is late Nov.


click to enlarge

Note the slight negative divergence on the RSI.
So ....short / intermediate term caution all the way to neutral. 

Why not go short?
The long term ABC down from 15.78 to 1.90 has not been seriously retraced yet, in either price or time.
Fibonacci .236 retrace of that 6. 3  yr move of 13.88  hits at 5.17, and the 7 mo.s up is negligible.
Additionally the structure up has prob still got another leg to complete following a consolidation under 4.00. 

But after 7 months of a bull stance on the sidelines.

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