Monday, August 20, 2012

WTI Medium Term Elliott Update


WTI is likely at or very near its top on this move up from 77.28. That is based on the apparent series of 2 abc's up from the lows that are related to each other by Fibonacci 1.618 , that is the second series = .618 of the first. Corrective moves are usually structured as abc's of course, and it is very difficult to see this move up as anything but.
Additionally the total retrace of the move up off the lows is very near the .62 level at 97. 56.
 Daily
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Note the lack of negative divergence on the RSI.

So what are we looking at then? At least a collapse down from this structure ....confirmed by putting in a new low under 9180, the beginning of the last "c" wave up, and a test of the 77.28 lows at a minimum.
Weekly
click to enlarge
If the move down is a "c" wave within a larger abc down from 110, the c = a @ roughly 65.
 c= 1.618 of the  preceding leg @ roughly 43.

So the 92/ 91.75 area is going to be very interesting.  

 Gasoline Daily
click to enlarge
And since crude is almost all about this, a quick look might be in order.
Note the c = a on the corrective move up. Of course this chart has already rolled over, overlapping the high of the "a" wave. Taking out the .618 retrace of the "c" will be another confirming milestone on the resumption of the structure down.
If this corrective move up from the 2.44 lows is complete, and the next leg down is equal to the first leg, for c=a,  it will target 2.11
Of course it could also be a Fibonacci 1.618 of the first move down , targeting 1.51
Tough for crude to rally in the face of a gasoline sell off.




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