Monday, August 13, 2012

SPX Death Watch

As they say in Texas....this thing's fixin to slide like sh#t off a hot shovel.
I mean I really really really really really hope it doesn't ( one of the unfortunate effects of a market collapse is it hurts just everyone) but it's right at that point.
 Super complacency; VIX is at 14 and change...the last time it saw those levels was the very last trading day of March, followed by the 150 point volume, high positive sentiment all around. Oscillators spinning off negative divergence..etc
Now this sucker HAS been kept up here remarkably well, and the world hopes to whistle right past the obvious and all , but gee remember what followed the last Olympics? DJIA was cut in half over the next 8 mo.s....not that there is any causation there...but maybe its that 4 yr Presidential thingy..
Whatever... bottom line is September cometh ...
And while the SP might eke out a little further gain to say 1426 , that would be a very high risk 20 points.
Either the SP has just completed a minor 2 wave and starts down this morning basically, or it is completing a 3rd abc for the final Z wave of Primary 2.... chopping slightly higher to aforementioned 1426 area. Leaning towards the latter interpretation as it IS August.
Charts to follow.
click to enlarge
Note the very minor and recent negative divergence on the RSI.
The c = .81 of a, , c will = a at 1426
The more commonly found count is reflected above with the Primary 2 wave completed end of Mar. at 1422, that really requires almost immediate failure from here.
 It is also possible that the 1 is an X wave and the structure chopping up is the final Z wave of  Primary 2, as mentioned above.
In the most benign interpretation the chop up is a b wave of an X, and thus subject to only a 150 point  drop as c=a down.

The most bearish  targets are sub 666 for the c or 3 down ( of equal degree as the 1578 to 666 wave 1 or A).

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