Monday, August 20, 2012

WTI Medium Term Elliott Update

WTI is likely at or very near its top on this move up from 77.28. That is based on the apparent series of 2 abc's up from the lows that are related to each other by Fibonacci 1.618 , that is the second series = .618 of the first. Corrective moves are usually structured as abc's of course, and it is very difficult to see this move up as anything but.
Additionally the total retrace of the move up off the lows is very near the .62 level at 97. 56.
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Note the lack of negative divergence on the RSI.

So what are we looking at then? At least a collapse down from this structure ....confirmed by putting in a new low under 9180, the beginning of the last "c" wave up, and a test of the 77.28 lows at a minimum.
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If the move down is a "c" wave within a larger abc down from 110, the c = a @ roughly 65.
 c= 1.618 of the  preceding leg @ roughly 43.

So the 92/ 91.75 area is going to be very interesting.  

 Gasoline Daily
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And since crude is almost all about this, a quick look might be in order.
Note the c = a on the corrective move up. Of course this chart has already rolled over, overlapping the high of the "a" wave. Taking out the .618 retrace of the "c" will be another confirming milestone on the resumption of the structure down.
If this corrective move up from the 2.44 lows is complete, and the next leg down is equal to the first leg, for c=a,  it will target 2.11
Of course it could also be a Fibonacci 1.618 of the first move down , targeting 1.51
Tough for crude to rally in the face of a gasoline sell off.

Monday, August 13, 2012

SPX Death Watch

As they say in Texas....this thing's fixin to slide like sh#t off a hot shovel.
I mean I really really really really really hope it doesn't ( one of the unfortunate effects of a market collapse is it hurts just everyone) but it's right at that point.
 Super complacency; VIX is at 14 and change...the last time it saw those levels was the very last trading day of March, followed by the 150 point volume, high positive sentiment all around. Oscillators spinning off negative divergence..etc
Now this sucker HAS been kept up here remarkably well, and the world hopes to whistle right past the obvious and all , but gee remember what followed the last Olympics? DJIA was cut in half over the next 8 mo.s....not that there is any causation there...but maybe its that 4 yr Presidential thingy..
Whatever... bottom line is September cometh ...
And while the SP might eke out a little further gain to say 1426 , that would be a very high risk 20 points.
Either the SP has just completed a minor 2 wave and starts down this morning basically, or it is completing a 3rd abc for the final Z wave of Primary 2.... chopping slightly higher to aforementioned 1426 area. Leaning towards the latter interpretation as it IS August.
Charts to follow.
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Note the very minor and recent negative divergence on the RSI.
The c = .81 of a, , c will = a at 1426
The more commonly found count is reflected above with the Primary 2 wave completed end of Mar. at 1422, that really requires almost immediate failure from here.
 It is also possible that the 1 is an X wave and the structure chopping up is the final Z wave of  Primary 2, as mentioned above.
In the most benign interpretation the chop up is a b wave of an X, and thus subject to only a 150 point  drop as c=a down.

The most bearish  targets are sub 666 for the c or 3 down ( of equal degree as the 1578 to 666 wave 1 or A).

Thursday, August 9, 2012

Post #1001- Natural Gas Update

It's been awhile so a little review might be in order.
 Natural Gas exceeded the resistance levels of 3.05 to 3.10 noted in the previous post from July 9 Natural Gas Hits Target, by 17 cents.
While it did run through that zone, hopefully readers were long from the 1.90 area ...pls see Natural Gas Hits Long Term Target  , from April 19, to capture 1.15 /1.20
At this point while still really liking NG for the long term, it is looking vulnerable to a Fibonacci %  pullback following the ABC up from 1.90 to 3.27.

click to enlarge

There is a seasonal low window in mid Aug. normally followed by an avg. 115% rally and , while it has not been much in evidence the last couple years, it could exert influence anytime especially following a sharp move down to Fib. 2.58, or 2.42.
So medium term risk of a deeper pullback as in an X wave, offering longer term opportunity for another abc up.

Short term ranging 2.80 to 3.00 with today's storage report maybe giving a little help for positioning.