Monday, May 14, 2012

SP500- On the Precipce

The current short term bounce can be counted as the -2- of the 3rd wave of larger degree; as such
short term risk of an accelerating -3- of 3 down is high. Pls see SP 500 Update
15 min

 Note the lack of any positive RSI divergence so far.
Though not labeled, the pattern can be seen as having -1- of 3 down ending last Wed., the -2- of 3  ending Fri., and -3- of 3 beginning today with the move to new lows, as discussed in the prev. post.
Daily
 click to enlarge
Although somewhat oversold, the daily RSI is not exhibiting positive divergence.
A clear settle below the prev. low and .382 retrace around 1340 will be a very negative close and suggest high risk of further downside.
Weekly

 click to enlarge
Here the RSI and MACD can be seen to be just getting started, let alone showing any positive divergence.
An overlap of the 1289 area, the termination of what might be labeled 1 by the bulls, and the .382 retrace point , would confirm the end of the 7 mo. long structure up. That would make the move down the beginning of  either the long awaited C wave, or alternatively and more moderately, an X wave.




 

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