Tuesday, May 1, 2012

Natural Gas Catches a Bid

OK it's up; and not unlooked for. See previous post Natural Gas Hits Long Term Target.
And it's got more to go, probably a lot more.
Daily
 click to enlarge
The last leg down from 2.79 has a 50% resistance point at 2.34. Taking that out will no doubt signal a challenge of the previous high at 2.44, and the small gap at 2.45 ( also the .618 retrace).
Additionally it is likely that this retrace, even IF corrective, will achieve at least the 4th of lesser degree around 2.79.
 Note the increase in volume since the lows, and lack of negative divergence on the RSI.

Weekly
click to enlarge
If the leg down from 5.00 is a complete 5 count, then a .382 retrace to 3.09 would be a modest expectation, EVEN IF this is merely a corrective upswing.
And there is reasonable doubt that this is corrective; again see  Natural Gas Hits Long Term Target
Note the weekly RSI and MACD have lots of room to continue moving up.

PS the .382 retrace of the entire ABC move down from 15.78 to 1.90 comes in at 7.20
Is that likely? I wouldn't have thought 13,300 on the Dow likely 2 years ago.


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