Monday, April 16, 2012

SP500 Alert

While the macro environment has been seriously frightening for the last 6 mo.s, equities have of course defied all logical expectations and continued their record climb through the 1st qtr. The SP500 retraced  82% of it.s move down getting to 10% off the all time highs .
Most bears have attributed this to the liquidity pump provided by central banks, with bad fundamentals stoking expectations of more stimulus.
Coupled with the lousy internals of the rally (see RSI, volume, breadth and complacency), it,s been difficult for this thinking human being to get bullish, and equally difficult to be willing to get bearish.
So I have refrained from making any calls since Dec. 8 2011,
Until now.
SP 500 Daily
 click to enlarge

Chart really says it all;  
Weekly
click to enlarge
The 50% retrace of the last move up from 1078 is around 1248.
The .618 retrace of 666 to 1422 is at 955.

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