Thursday, April 19, 2012

Natural Gas Hits Long Term Target

Natural Gas has finally achieved its C=A long term target off the 15.78 high of Dec. 2005.


The initial A wave down bottomed at 4.05 in the autumn of 2006, a move of 11.73.
The B wave carried up to 13.70 in 2008 before beginning the current move down.It hit an interim low of 2.40 in 2009 for the a of C
Even though 1.95 was my early long term target, the  the 2.40 low was so significant, providing a springboard for a 250% move up to 6.11, and held so long, 2.5 yr.s, that it argued strongly against fresh lows before a serious new high, BUT...
Here we are, finally achieving the C=A around 1.95.
Weekly
click to enlarge
This last leg, the c of C, can be counted as having a 5 wave complete, or VERY nearly.
Note the minor divergence on the RSI, and shrinking volumes.
Daily
Again some positive divergence on the RSI coupled with shrinking sell side volumes.
 Can it grind a little lower? Sure...previous lows from 2001 at 1.88, and the C wave structure has  c= .382 0f a at 1.79. BUT 
 

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